TMHB Football Week, Pt. 3: Thank God for Red Zone
The whip-around coverage of NFL Sunday has changed the way I watch football, and it's definitely for the better.
The National Football League and Sunday go together like peanut butter and jelly. Summer’s ending dovetailing into the beginning of colder weather and kids in school can throw anyone for a depressive loop, but they make weekends all the more valuable. Some people like to spend those weekends picking apples or doing projects they’d been putting off to enjoy the lush days of summer, but for millions of people around the country, a group of which I include myself eagerly, the weekend is capped off, at least in the fall and early winter months, by a ballet of carnage juxtaposed against graceful feats of athletic prowess held in no fewer than fourteen stadia across this great land, or in some cases, also in England or Mexico. There’s no better cap to an autumnal weekend than indulging in hours upon hours of NFL football, at least for me. Your mileage may vary, but I gather if you didn’t ignore this newsletter in your inbox, you feel approximately the same way.
NFL football has always been a staple in my home, whether as a child with my parents or with my own family as an adult, no matter what the form. Of course, the Eagles would take precedence, as NFL blackout rules were always stubborn about showing other games opposite the local team. Either way, I always treated myself to the Eagles game and whatever national game would precede or follow it. I spent many a Sunday with Pat Summerall and John Madden as the soundtrack to at least one of the games for my Sunday, and I always thought that watching one game at a time would be the standard. It was a simpler time, at least before I discovered things like “fantasy football” and “gambling.” Granted, I don’t gamble that much, but still, you want to be able to have the game you have skin in in front of your face. Local feeds rarely lined up with your own needs.
Then, something changed. In 2009, in a stroke of genius rarely if ever associated with the braintrust in NFL offices, the league introduced an offshoot to its own cable network called “NFL Red Zone.” The concept was simple; they would broadcast every single regular season game going on at the time (just not at the same time mostly, even if the DREAD OCTOBOX is still always on the table), and they would whip around to whatever game featured a team that was closest to the red zone, or the area of the field between the opponent’s 20-yard line and the goal line. The goal was to give viewers the most exciting distillation of a football Sunday possible.
One could perhaps be forgiven if they were skeptical about the concept at first. My dad, for one, still hates the concept, because to him, football is meant to be watched from whistle to whistle. The problem with that is not every football game is worth the entire 60-minute investment. For every thrilling, score-a-minute contest like that wild Kansas City/Los Angeles Rams Monday night game in 2018, there are 20 that are games with more three-and-outs than should be consumed by anyone without any skin in the game. The problem is without Red Zone, you don’t know if the game you’re getting is going to be good or a snoozer. The schedule makers aren’t psychic. They spotlight the national games in a given timeslot based on how good the teams are before, now how good a game they think they’ll play in the moment.
That’s why Red Zone is such a key development. At any given moment, you will find a team playing with enough excitement and momentum to warrant watching, especially in the 1 PM eastern timeslot where there are up to nine games going on at the same time. There will almost always be exciting football to be watched, and Red Zone is that outlet because you will always be privy to it. No longer are you beholden to watching whatever CBS or Fox is obligated to show you, even if what they have to show you is just dreadful.
If anything, Red Zone has increased the width and breadth of my fandom in football. I no longer have to follow the players I have in fantasy in delayed highlights or in the newspaper or, more accurately right now, on ESPN Dot Com to see how they did. I can see these players making plays in real time, or in time that is as close to real as you can get for when they get you the feed a few seconds later than it happened. I am an Eagles fan, but I am more than that now, and I think Red Zone, more than anything, has cultivated that mindset that I’m a fan of football more than anything. For that alone, it’s worth its existence and then some.
And now, it’s time to get to what everyone got here for, The Mental Health Break OFFICIAL NFL Predictions for the 2021 season!
NFC East
1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Washington Football Team
3. Philadelphia Eagles
4. New York Giants
I really want to predict the Eagles to win the division. I really, really do. However, for as good as their starters seem to be, there’s a glaring issue with depth, that if they suffer the injury bug they’ve been bitten by the last few years, they’re going to be sunk. Still, they’ll be a far better team than advertised, certainly better than last year. Their lines both seem dominant through all the run-throughs, and Devonta Smith is better than any Eagles WR I’ve seen in midnight green since DeSean Jackson, the first time he was here. But for as much as I want to gush about my team, I need to focus on the two teams ahead of them.
No team has repeated as NFC East Champion since the Eagles under Andy Reid won four straight in the early Aughts. I see that trend continuing because the Cowboys are the most talented team in the division, top to bottom, even if that advantage is tenuous. It all hinges on Dak Prescott’s health, which at this point is more nebulous upon which to report than the status of the Fantastic Four in the MCU. The race between the Cowboys and that soon-to-be-renamed Football Team should be tight. Washington’s defense could be the best in the league. It’s hard to call, but as much as it pains me, it’s Dallas’ division to lose.
NFC North
1. Green Bay Packers
2. Chicago Bears
3. Minnesota Vikings
4. Detroit Lions
Honestly, this division is so chaotic to predict because there are so many moving parts in play. Aaron Rodgers isn’t a lock to finish the season before riding off into retirement. The Vikings could very well be the only team to have to forfeit a game this year due to wanton and flagrant disregard for COVID protocols. This division could be the Bears to take, except they have a question at the quarterback position. The problem is, their ceiling is probably the same no matter if they go with milquetoast veteran Andy Dalton or promising rookie Justin Fields for the bulk of the season. Fields’ big successes will come in year two at the earliest, but he’ll be exciting at least. Everyone knows what Dalton brings to the table, and it’s not much. Either way, I’m going on the assumption that Rodgers plays the whole season, which means the Packers are your provisional North Champions. But I’m not expecting anything on the level of their run last year.
NFC South
1. Atlanta Falcons
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
3. New Orleans Saints
4. Carolina Panthers
It’s not unusual to see worst-to-first turnarounds in the NFL, and sometimes, all it takes is a coaching change and the infusion of an exciting young player. For the Falcons, they know what they can get from Matt Ryan, who maybe has one big run left in him. Yeah, they traded Julio Jones, but Calvin Ridley is proving to be the stud they needed when they drafted him. Add Kyle Pitts to the mix, a guy who is perhaps the face of the positionless football revolution, and change the coaching culture from stick-in-the-mud Dan Quinn to an offensive raconteur in Arthur Smith, and I feel like the Falcons have all the ingredients to surge to a division title. The Bucs will be there til the end and snag a wild card, I think, but again, as I noted from the fantasy preview, Tom Brady shows deceitful mortality in the regular season that he sheathes in the playoffs. The Saints will be there too, but for as good as they’ll still be defensively, do you trust a team that will have to rely on Taysom Hill over 17 games? Or do you really think Jameis Winston can pilot a playoff team and not just be a fantasy superstar if he gets the nod? The Panthers are playing out the string to get a new quarterback, because Sam Darnold ain’t it.
NFC West
1. Los Angeles Rams
2. Seattle Seahawks
3. San Francisco 49ers
4. Arizona Cardinals
The NFC West should be a meat-grinder this year like it was last year, and all four of these teams could win any of the other divisions at best or at least contend for a wild card there. All being populated here makes their fortunes tough. So why do I see the division shaking out the way it does? Sean McVay finally has a quarterback who can execute an offense competently in Matthew Stafford. This team has too many hungry veterans not to make their run this year, on both sides of the ball. They may have the two best defensive players in the division, Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, if not the whole league. The rest of the division could be a real jam-up. The Niners have the same conundrum at QB, even if Jimmy Garoppolo is better than Dalton and Trey Lance has a lower floor than Fields. Their defense is still good enough to win, but I’ll still take a team quarterbacked by Russel Wilson over a team with questions at the most important position but with a good defense. The Cardinals have players, but I think this is the year everyone finally sees Kliff Kingsbury as someone wholly unprepared to lead a NFL team, at least right now.
AFC East
1. Buffalo Bills
2. Miami Dolphins
3. New England Patriots
4. New York Jets
I feel like the Bills might regress a little bit and have the most issues with COVID outside of Minnesota, and they still might get homefield in the AFC playoffs. They’re still the most complete team in the conference, even if the statistical performances all drop across the board. Plus, only the Dolphins pose a threat to them, and that threat pends on how good Tua Tagavailoa is in year two. Your mileage may vary on him, but if he’s going to be good, it’s going to be over a year removed from his hip injury. The Patriots will be frisky, but they still feel too depleted from their glory days.
AFC North
1. Cleveland Browns
2. Baltimore Ravens
3. Pittsburgh Steelers
4. Cincinnati Bengals
Much like the other northern division, this one feels tricky as hell because all three contending teams have such question marks. To be fair, the Browns’ issues are psychological and rooted in superstition. “Will the Browns remember they’re the Browns this year?” cannot pass for real analysis, and yet every time Cleveland has looked frisky going into a season, they remembered they were Browns. Meanwhile, the Ravens are another team dealing with COVID obtuseness, and the Steelers lost key offensive linemen and have a washed, blundering lummox at QB. Looking at the evidence though and ignoring superstition, it’s clear the Browns should win the division with the Ravens following close behind. The Browns are a more complete team, even if I feel Lamar Jackson is the best QB in the division and is unrightfully maligned by national media. The Bengals could’ve made a leap forward, but if their offseason has been any indication, they won’t be able to protect Joe Burrow long enough to find any of his receivers getting open.
AFC South
1. Tennessee Titans
2. Indianapolis Colts
3. Jacksonville Jaguars
4. Houston Texans
This might be the easiest division to call. The Titans and Colts will compete for the divisional title, at least nominally. Everything hinges on Carson Wentz. If last year was an aberration, the Colts will be formidable. The thing is, you cannot discount that as an outlier because it’s so recent. If his 2020 year happened in 2018 and his 2018 year happened in 2020, you could make that argument. Wentz has a lot to prove, and I’m not entirely convinced he’s not washed. The Titans, however, added another legit threat on offense in Julio Jones and continue to have a hungry, opportunistic defense that can keep them in games. The Jags are at least a year away, and they may need a coaching change to get back. The Texans could be contracted tomorrow and no one would notice.
AFC West
1. Kansas City
2. Denver Broncos
3. Los Angeles Chargers
4. Las Vegas Raiders
As long as Andy Reid is coaching Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City is going to be a threat to win the whole thing. The thing about Reid though is that his teams have such a nasty habit of burping at the worst possible times. You could say he’ll cost Mahomes at least two titles, but he’s one of the only coaches who could get out of Mahomes what he’s gotten. That alone should be enough to get them a division title. The rest of the division could get spicy, but I like Denver a lot this year. They’ll get Von Miller back, and they added a stud corner in the draft in Patrick Surtain II. They named Teddy Bridgewater at QB, who stunk in a bad situation in Carolina last year. I think this is a perfect situation for him with all those skill players and that defense supporting him. They’ll be a surprise playoff team. The Chargers will be in the mix too, but they might feel Justin Herbert’s sophomore slump a little too hard. The Raiders are the NFL’s CHAOS TEAM, but it feels like they’ve gotten left behind by the other three teams in the division. They feel like they’ll upset a few teams along the way, but man, the signature of every Gruden team after he won the Super Bowl in Tampa is just throwing shit to the wall and seeing if it sticks.
Playoffs
(2) Rams d. (7) 49ers
(6) Bucs d. (3) Cowboys
(4) Packers d. (5) Seahawks
(2) Kansas City d. (7) Broncos
(3) Browns d. (6) Dolphins
(5) Ravens d. (4) Titans
(1) Falcons d. (6) Bucs
(2) Rams d. (4) Packers
(1) Bills d. (5) Ravens
(2) Kansas City d. (3) Browns
(2) Rams d. (1) Falcons
(1) Bills d. (2) Kansas City
Super Bowl LVI
Los Angeles Rams 38, Buffalo Bills 29
Everything breaks right for the Rams to win it all this year, even with the wear and tear they have of playing six of the toughest divisional games any team could have to play en route to a title. If McVay is the guy, and as much as I wanted to deny it for my own selfish reasons he just might be, this is the year he should do it. He’s got a veteran-laden team and a quarterback whose hand he doesn’t have to hold.
NFL MVP: Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City
NFL Offensive Player of the Year: Mahomes
NFL Defensive Player of the Year: Ed Oliver, DT, Buffalo Bills
NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year: Kyle Pitts, TE, Atlanta Falcons
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year: Milton Williams, DL, Philadelphia Eagles
Coach of the Year: Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
First Pick in the NFL Draft Goes To… Houston Texans