A lot of haters, pundits, and fans of other teams claim the Eagles got lucky en route to their NFC Championship last year. Those people are wrong, in a way. The Eagles won several games in laughers, and their offensive and defensive performances bore out statistically. They earned the only bye in the NFC playoffs, and their playoff performances before the Super Bowl showed they were a Championship caliber team that just happened to run into another Championship caliber team in the final game of the year.
However, those people were all right in a certain light as well, but their correctness is not rooted in the pejorative that they mean it to be. The Eagles did get lucky last season, but it’s in the same way that every championship team gets lucky. The dirty secret is that once you get to the pro level, teams tend to have talent levels within a standard deviation of everyone else at most unless you have teams that obviously are tanking, which in the NFL is ignorant at best. In the NFL, you only have 17 games in the regular season to mark your territory for the postseason. That is a ridiculously small sample size of games. It’s the only league where every team doesn’t play each other at least once. The sheer violence of the game dictates that.
While it’s true some teams remain in the levels a standard deviation above the rest of the pack, they are not guaranteed advancement in the playoffs based on talent levels on paper alone. Football is a game of attrition and of bounces and of weather. All you need to do is get into the playoffs and you can get a horseshoe stuck up your collective ass and make a run.
The Eagles had that horseshoe up their ass the whole season until they got to the Super Bowl, and it’s not a diss to say so. They stayed relatively healthy; Jalen Hurts didn’t miss any time until they pretty much had the conference sewn up. They caught a schedule without any elite quarterbacks until the Super Bowl, which is good because their dipshit defensive coordinator, who now is the Arizona Cardinals’ dipshit head coach, turtles up whenever he faces a QB better than Derek Carr. Their superior talent was able to play at maximum because everything broke their way.
There’s no guarantee that happens again this year.
The team is better on paper, sure. Adding the other half of the 2021 Georgia Bulldogs defense plus getting D’Andre Swift and Rashaad Penny at running back and upgrading WR4 from Zach Pascal to Olamide Zaccheus should put them firmly in the favorite position for the NFC Title and possibly their second Super Bowl win in six years. But I’ve seen this song and dance before. The 2005 team fell apart thanks to an injury to Donovan McNabb and wide receiver Terrell Owens’ relationship with the team going completely south. The various “dream teams” in the early ‘10s were flops. I know how a good team can blossom, but I’ve also seen the flops.
Don’t get it twisted. I am not being a fatalist here like I would have been as a Philly fan in the past. However, one cannot discount how luck can break against you just as it broke for you. You need both skill and luck to win. It remains to be seen which team gets the horseshoe up their collective ass this year. Hopefully, it’s the Eagles again, but I’m going to be realistic about it all.
PREVIEWS BY DIVISION
NFC East - I know I just did an entire screed about how the Eagles may not be as lucky this year as last year, but honestly, they still have the most talented team in the division with better coaching. Dallas will be a threat, obviously, and I’m afraid their trade for Trey Lance, the odd man out in San Francisco, will light a fire underneath Dak Prescott. Overall though, I think the Eagles have the best chance since… the Eagles in 2003 and 2004 to repeat as division Champions. The Commanders, who ALREADY have buyers’ remorse on their shitty nickname, have a solid foundation on defense with a scary offense that gets blunted as soon as you realize Sam Howell may not be the answer at quarterback. If he is, they might surprise people. The Giants have big shoes to fill from last year, but they ate in close games. When your point differential is -6 and your biggest moves on offense were running back the QB and the RB while only bringing in Darren Waller at TE, well, I’m not entirely convinced they’re making the step forward.
Philadelphia Eagles
Dallas Cowboys
Washington Commanders
New York Giants
NFC North - This division feels wide open with four teams that could all be good. The Lions and Vikings on paper should battle for the top spot, but they both have question marks at QB. Jared Goff has served well enough for Detroit not to be in position to draft one of the big players in the 2023 draft, but how much of that is him finally realizing his potential from the 2016 draft, and how much of it was him producing in garbage time? Plus, all his wide receivers outside of Amon-Ra St. Brown (who is on a shortlist of guys who could be WR3 in the league after Justin Jefferson and JaMarr Chase) got suspended. The Vikings are a kind of team that you just get sick of picking, and you’re waiting for Kirk Cousins to shit the bed completely, but the truth is he’s a regular season warrior who feasts when the spotlight is fixed somewhere else. The Bears could make a leap though. Their defense is frisky, and Justin Fields has a lot of that Jalen Hurts steez surrounding him this year. The Bears got him DJ Moore as a legit WR1 target. You also cannot discount the Packers, especially because I’m not entirely sure they downgraded at quarterback. I mean, they didn’t get rid of 2014 Aaron Rodgers. Fuck, they didn’t even get rid of 2021 Aaron Rodgers. There was a noticeable dropoff in play from their increasingly erratic franchise QB, and even if he rebounds in New York, like, do you think the Packers wanted his weirdo shit in their locker room anymore? Jordan Love is no slam dunk, but at this point, it’s not like any other team in the division has a noticeably better QB.
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
NFC South - The NFC South is the inversion of the NFC North in that none of these fucking teams inspire anything but malaise in my cold, dead football fan heart. The best overall team in the division might be the Falcons, and they’re riding with Desmond Ridder at QB with several decades of intangible stink following them. Of all the Atlanta teams, I sympathize with the Falcons and their fans the most, but they have some sort of ancient curse brewing in their franchise’s DNA. I can’t explain it. The Saints might be overall the team that’s best off because they still have the best defense in the division. However, Derek Carr at quarterback with Alvin Kamara suspended three games spells trouble. The Bucs feel like a franchise in freefall, passing the rising Panthers, who have a promising young quarterback in Bryce Young who might end up overachieving because the team hired a QB guy, Frank Reich, as the head coach with a mentality that isn’t afraid to run the ball.
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
NFC West - Everyone thinks the 49ers will run away with this division, and on paper, they’d be right. That being said, Brock Purdy and Sam Darnold as 1 and 2 on the QB depth chart doesn’t inspire me with confidence. Purdy had a decent rookie year, and Kyle Shanahan is known to be THE QB guy in the league, but if he gets hurt again, or if 2022 was more smoke and mirrors, I’m not entirely sure this Niners team, even with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle (the oft-hurt George Kittle, mind you), scores enough points to keep up. That’s a big caveat though. I still think they’ll be okay. The thing is, I like this Seattle team. Even though they lost their defensive coordinator and will be asking Geno Smith to do the same kind of replication that the Niners are asking of Purdy, it’s hard to count out a team that invests that much capital in an explosive passing game. Adding Jaxon Smith-Njigba to a team that already has DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett seems unfair. The Rams are in a weird rebuilding spot, and I can’t read them whatsoever, and the Cardinals feel like they’ve gone back to being Malpractice: The Football team.
San Francisco 49ers
Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Rams
Arizona Cardinals
AFC East - As much as anyone should want to rewrite the code on this division, what materially changed here? I don’t think the Bills have gotten markedly worse. The stain of that pitiful playoff loss to the Bengals might taint the POV on them, but the facts are they’re going to get Tre’Davious White back, they added some pieces on offense, and Josh Allen is still going to do Josh Allen things. Miami is still a solid number two in the division unless Jaylen Waddle is going to be out for a prolonged period of time. Some pundits have jumped on the Jets, and I get it. I like Robert Saleh as a head coach, and their defense, anchored by Sauce Gardner, is good enough to get takeaways and get a key stop when needed. That being said, how much of 2020-21 Aaron Rodgers is still left? You need to a brain to play QB more than any other position in the league, and it’s fair to ask if Rodgers far-out erraticism has fucked with his decision making. Maybe the only thing I can surely say with my brain and my gut is that the Jets should finish ahead of the Patriots, but man, are they better than Miami, let alone Buffalo?
Buffalo Bills
Miami Dolphins
New York Jets
New England Patriots
AFC North - Like the other North Division, this one is hard to call because I can see all four teams winning it. It’s hard to go against the Bengals except Joe Burrow is apparently hobbled to start the season. The Bengals are strong finishers though. The Ravens have the best quarterback of the three teams remaining, but Lamar Jackson’s skill position players leave a lot to be desired. The Steelers have, as always, a stout defense and strong wide receivers, but is Kenny Pickett the real thing? It’s easy to write off the Browns, and easier to root against them, but if DeShaun Watson does find the player he was before his holdout and before the trouble he got in that should, I dunno, disqualify him from being in the fucking league, they have enough players on both sides of the ball to get back to the playoffs.
Cincinnati Bengals
Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens
Cleveland Browns
AFC South - Imagine saying three years ago that no team had an easier road to the playoffs than the Jacksonville fucking Jaguars. You’d be laughed out of the room. However, the Jags are the only complete team in the division. The Texans and Colts both are coming off bottoming out and they got their shiny new rookie quarterbacks to boot. The Titans probably should bottom out, but even though you can’t count them out, I’m not sure Derrick Henry and DeAndre Hopkins are enough to power that offense. It’s the Jags and then a lot of chaff, at least this year.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
AFC West - As long as Patrick Mahomes is at quarterback, he’s going to have Kansas City in a position to win enough games to win this division comfortably. It doesn’t matter what receivers they rotate in and out, even if Travis Kelce ends up winding down (Which he’s shown no signs of doing). The rest of the division is what’s going to be interesting. The Chargers will always have the second most talent on paper, but does Justin Herbert have that dawg in him? Can Sean Payton revive the Bronco franchise even if Russel Wilson is cooked? The Raiders have a fascinating roster, even with Jimmy Garoppolo at quarterback, but is it enough to overcome Josh McDaniels as the head coach?
Kansas City
Las Vegas Raiders
Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
Playoffs
Eagles over Seahawks
Lions over Bears
Cowboys over Saints
Bills over Ravens
Kansas City over Steelers
Bengals over Dolphins
Niners over Cowboys
Eagles over Lions
Bengals over Jaguars
Kansas City over Bills
Eagles over Niners
Bengals over Kansas City
Eagles over Bengals (I’m allowed to be a homer, god-fucking-dammit)
NFL MVP: Josh Allen, QB, Bills
NFL OPOY: JaMarr Chase, WR, Bengals
NFL DPOY: Haason Reddick, EDGE, Eagles
NFL OROY: Bijan Robinson, RB, Falcons
NFL DROY: Nolan Smith, EDGE, Eagles
NFL COY: Mike Tomlin, Steelers
1st Overall Pick: Arizona Cardinals
Happy football, everyone. Enjoy Kansas City/Detroit tonight!